Bond market investors are focused on the latest “dot plot,” indicating Fed policymakers only expect to bring short-term rates down by half a percentage point in 2025.
Category: federal reserve
December Fed rate cut seen as a lock — then caution may prevail
The latest Consumer Price Index reading is in line with expectations, but progress in fighting inflation has stalled. Forecasts for a slower pace of easing next year might keep mortgage rates above 6 percent.
Latest inflation data ups the odds of a December Fed rate cut
Progress in taming inflation slowed in October, but futures market investors think the latest numbers up the odds of another Federal Reserve rate cut next month.
Weak jobs, manufacturing reports provide no relief for mortgage rates
Hurricanes and strikes were expected to dent job creation, and bond market investors are looking ahead to next week’s election, Fed meeting and government bond auctions.
Numbers to know: Is the Fed having second thoughts about rate cuts?
Inflation, combined with September’s strong jobs report, suggests that the Fed might be rethinking how quickly to cut the Federal Funds Rate, says Windermere’s Principal Economist Jeff Tucker.
Is that big Fed rate cut a cure-all for the mopey market? The Download
With this week’s half-percent rate cut from the Federal Reserve, agents are hoping sellers will finally get off the fence and loosen up some inventory to get the market moving.
That big Fed rate cut was no panacea for housing: Fitch analysts
Fed easing was already priced into mortgage rates, but there’s room for more relief if investors who fund most home loans get less skittish about prepayment risk and quantitative tightening.
Investors’ expectations for big Fed rate cut rise on new data releases
Investors who fund most mortgages have already priced in several rate cuts, so further declines could depend on what next week’s “dot plot” says about expectations for the pace of future cuts.
Fed expected to be cautious in cutting rates next week
A surprisingly large increase in core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, means Fed policymakers are likely to start out with a modest 25 basis-point rate cut when they meet next week.
July inflation reading trims the odds of a big September rate cut
PCE price index shows inflation continued to cool in July, but at a gentle enough pace that Fed policymakers are now seen as likely to only bring rates down by a hair in September.